Oil, Dollar, and Trade in Focus

Analyst Weekly, June 23, 2025

Oil’s Danger Premium Has Arrived

Choosing up from final week’s commentary on potential oil market disruption, this week traders are turning their focus to the broader macroeconomic implications of rising geopolitical tensions within the Center East. By June 22, Brent crude had climbed practically 18% from early-month ranges, reaching a five-month excessive close to $79. The transfer displays rising concern over the potential disruption of key commerce routes, significantly the Strait of Hormuz, which handles practically 30% of world seaborne oil flows. Betting markets now put the chances of a closure at round 60% over the following 12 months.

Whereas a lot of the early market response has centered on Western vitality safety and central financial institution coverage, China could also be some of the strategically uncovered economies on this situation. Because the world’s largest vitality client in 2024, China stays closely reliant on imported fossil fuels, significantly from the Center East. Official information present that six of its high 10 oil suppliers are based mostly in or close to the Persian Gulf, with extra volumes flowing, usually at discounted charges, through transshipment hubs like Malaysia. This leaves a big share of China’s vitality provide susceptible to disruption. The end result may very well be a resurgence of cost-push inflation throughout China’s manufacturing sector, introducing new macro headwinds for each home development and international provide chains.

Funding Takeaway: Buyers at the moment are positioning for a extra unstable macro setting. Anticipate heightened demand for inflation hedges, comparable to vitality equities, actual belongings, and gold, and a rising deal with resilience in international provide chains. Areas and sectors extra uncovered to vitality prices and commerce flows in Asia and Europe might face near-term headwinds, whereas commodity exporters and defensive sectors may benefit.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasised that momentary oil worth spikes alone are usually not sufficient to shift policy- they should be sustained and feed into broader inflation expectations to change the trail of cuts. This nuance reinforces investor demand for high quality, liquidity, and adaptability, and will push portfolio building towards extra balanced, all-weather methods.

Greenback Drifts, Gold Features: A Reserve Shift in Movement

The US greenback is underneath pressure- DXY has touched under its post-Liberation Day low, earlier than latest geopolitical tensions have generated sporadic safe-haven demand. A number of short-term catalysts have been driving the downward development: 1. over $500 billion in liquidity has entered the market since late April (because the US is paying its short-term obligations post-reaching the debt restrict), 2. new tariff dangers are clouding the commerce outlook, 3. financial information has softened, 4. Part 899 of the US tax invoice has raised considerations about international capital flows, 5. the deficit continues to widen, and, 6. markets are more and more pricing in Fed charge cuts.

However past the same old macro noise, a extra structural shift could also be brewing. Traditionally, when the greenback weakens, international central banks step in to purchase Treasuries as a technique to stabilize their very own currencies. That sample seems to be breaking. Regardless of the greenback’s slide, international central banks have continued promoting Treasuries, elevating the chance they’re step by step diversifying away from US-denominated belongings.

We’ve famous refined indicators of diversification away from the greenback in latest quarters, however now it’s changing into extra express. A latest World Gold Council survey discovered that 73% of central banks anticipate greenback reserves to say no over the following 5 years, whereas 95% anticipate to extend their gold holdings. Geopolitical dangers, sanctions publicity, and rising commerce tensions are more and more shaping reserve administration selections.

If this shift persists, it could mark a structural change in international capital flows, a transfer away from greenback dominance that would elevate long-term US borrowing prices, weaken Treasury demand, and reshape how the world manages monetary danger. What appears like a short-term greenback selloff might, in reality, be the opening act of a broader reserve realignment.

Supply: World Gold Council, June 2025.

FedEx earnings on Tuesday: How a lot is international commerce actually struggling?

FedEx is delivering extra than simply a normal quarterly replace this week. After months of commerce conflicts, geopolitical tensions and financial uncertainty, these numbers might lastly present concrete insights into how considerably all these components have impacted international commerce.

Stress check for logistics stocksThe US has enacted a collection of tariff will increase and threats. Tariffs introduced on April 2 particularly despatched shockwaves by way of the monetary markets, from which many shares have but to totally get well, together with names within the logistics sector.

Actuality checkFedEx will report its earnings for March by way of Could on Tuesday after U.S. market shut. This era coincides with elevated strain on international items flows as a consequence of U.S. commerce coverage. Earnings per share are anticipated to rise 9.8% to $5.94, whereas income is forecast to say no 1.9% to $21.7 billion.

This implies improved effectivity or constant value management regardless of declining revenues. Nevertheless, such a sample,  rising earnings on falling gross sales, is just not sustainable long-term. Administration will present steering through the earnings name. Buyers ought to pay shut consideration to any alerts relating to provide chains, demand, and commerce dangers.

Technical evaluation and outlookSince breaking its uptrend line in February, FedEx inventory has been in a broader downtrend. The 17% improve from the April low to $226 is to be seen as a technical rebound inside the ongoing development. A sustained breakout above resistance at $245 may very well be the primary signal of a development reversal. Till that occurs, the restoration stays a counter-trend transfer.

FedEx within the weekly chart. Supply: eToro

Extra than simply FedExFedEx is a key financial indicator, however not the one one. In occasions of geopolitical rigidity, tariff uncertainty, provide chain disruptions, and shifting commerce agreements, a broad view of transportation and logistics information is crucial.

Different key metrics embrace container throughput indices (e.g., RWI/ISL), air cargo information, the Baltic Dry Index, and commerce figures from main economies. Outcomes from different logistics firms like UPS, Maersk, and DHL additionally full the image.

BottomlineInvestors ought to deal with the place international commerce is definitely organized and executed. Adjustments to tariffs or commerce restrictions affect transport demand virtually instantly, usually inside weeks. Extremely globalized firms with versatile logistics are particularly affected. Tuesday’s outcomes will check investor confidence not simply in FedEx, however within the broader resilience of world commerce.

Technical Evaluation: Oracle

Oracle has damaged to new all-time-highs this week after smashing by way of the earlier excessive from December final 12 months. It is going to be necessary for the bulls to defend any retest of the $200 deal with and that in idea ought to act as a flooring now to a continued transfer increased. After breaking the uptrend again in March, traders would have rightly been anxious, however since discovering a backside it has now rallied over 80%.

This communication is for info and schooling functions solely and shouldn’t be taken as funding recommendation, a private advice, or a proposal of, or solicitation to purchase or promote, any monetary devices.  This materials has been ready with out bearing in mind any specific recipient’s funding targets or monetary scenario and has not been ready in accordance with the authorized and regulatory necessities to advertise impartial analysis. Any references to previous or future efficiency of a monetary instrument, index or a packaged funding product are usually not, and shouldn’t be taken as, a dependable indicator of future outcomes. eToro makes no illustration and assumes no legal responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of the content material of this publication.